A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
